Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Top 14 match between Union Bordeaux Begles and Perpignan, scheduled for May 16 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Union Bordeaux Begles | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| Draw | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Perpignan | 46% YES | 54% NO |
Union Bordeaux Bègles will face Perpignan in a Top 14 fixture on 16 May 2026, with settlement occurring after the final whistle. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Union Bordeaux Bègles victory at 62%, reflecting a modest but meaningful favourite status in what remains an open contest between two mid-table Ligue Nationale de Rugby sides.
Historically, Bordeaux has held the stronger record in this fixture, though Perpignan have demonstrated capacity to compete in the Top 14 despite recent seasons of inconsistency. The 62% probability sits within the typical range for home-field advantage in French rugby when teams are relatively evenly matched on paper—neither club has secured European qualification or faced relegation pressure in recent campaigns, suggesting fixture stakes will be moderate. Comparable matchups between similar-ranked sides in the final weeks of the Top 14 season have typically settled near these probability levels, with outcomes driven by squad rotation, injury status, and momentum rather than structural dominance.
Traders should monitor team news releases through May, particularly injury announcements affecting key positions. Bordeaux's recent form and any late-season tactical shifts will be visible in training reports and pre-match media. Perpignan's squad availability, especially among their forward pack, will influence scrum dynamics. The settlement window closes 16 May at 15:00 UTC, allowing minimal post-announcement trading once lineups are confirmed. Weather conditions at the Stade Chaban-Delmas may also shift the probability if heavy rain is forecast, favouring the home side's pack-oriented approach.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.lnr.fr/top-14. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Top 14: Union Bordeaux Begles vs Perpignan" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.lnr.fr/top-14. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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