Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Super Rugby Pacific match between Crusaders and Hurricanes, scheduled for May 29 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Crusaders | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Draw | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Hurricanes | 50% YES | 50% NO |
The Crusaders and Hurricanes will meet in a Super Rugby Pacific fixture on 29 May 2026, with settlement determined by the match outcome. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 48% implied probability for a Crusaders victory, suggesting near-parity in market expectations between the two New Zealand franchises.
Historically, the Crusaders have held a structural advantage in this matchup, winning approximately 60% of encounters over the past decade. However, the Hurricanes have shown volatility in recent seasons, with their performance heavily dependent on squad depth and injury status. The current 48% probability sits below the Crusaders' long-run win rate, indicating either that the market is pricing in specific roster concerns for Christchurch or elevated confidence in Wellington's form heading into the 2026 campaign. Comparable Super Rugby derbies between established franchises typically settle within a 45–55% range when teams are evenly matched on paper.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability and coaching changes through to the settlement window closing on 5 June. Injury updates to key positions—particularly in the forward pack and at fly-half—will likely shift the order book materially in the weeks before kick-off. Weather conditions at the venue and any late fixture rescheduling could also influence positioning. Recent Super Rugby seasons have seen unexpected results when squads face fixture congestion, so tracking both teams' preceding match schedules will provide context for fatigue factors.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://super.rugby/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Super Rugby Pacific: Crusaders vs Hurricanes" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $488 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://super.rugby/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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