Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the person appointed as the next permanent manager of SL Benfica. If no permanent manager is appointed by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SL Benfica; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Antonio Conte | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Thomas Frank | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Marco Silva | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| Filipe Luis | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Mauricio Pochettino | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Cesc Fabregas | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Zinedine Zidane | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Manager A | — | |
Benfica's managerial position remains unsettled as the Portuguese club navigates its 2024–25 season under current management. The market resolves upon announcement of a permanent successor, with the settlement window closing 31 August 2026. Current Polymarket order book activity prices the next manager appointment at 18% probability, reflecting genuine uncertainty about timing and candidate identity across the roughly 20-month window.
Historical precedent suggests Benfica managerial transitions occur irregularly. The club has cycled through multiple permanent appointments over recent years—including tenures of varying length—but rarely announces successors far in advance. Previous transitions have typically materialised within 12–18 months of speculation, often triggered by poor domestic performance or European competition exits. The current 18% implied probability reflects the base rate that no announcement occurs by August 2026, weighted against the club's demonstrated willingness to make mid-season or summer changes when results warrant intervention.
Traders should monitor Benfica's domestic league position and European competition performance through the 2024–25 and 2025–26 seasons, as poor results typically accelerate managerial change discussions. Portuguese media outlets including O Jogo and Record regularly report on managerial speculation; any formal announcement from the club's official channels immediately settles the market to the named successor. The absence of imminent crisis or widespread speculation currently supports the relatively low probability, though a significant downturn in results could rapidly shift market pricing as potential candidates emerge in public discourse.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Primeira Liga: Next Benfica Manager" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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