Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player formally ceases membership with LIV Golf, and ceases participation in LIV Golf events by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed player makes an official announcement regarding their intention to join another tour before the aforementioned date, the corresponding market will resolve to “Yes”, regardless of when that change takes effect. If LIV Golf ceases operations entirely within the declared timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Yes”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Thomas Detry | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Anthony Kim | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Richard Bland | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Victor Perez | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Paul Casey | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Anirban Lahiri | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Josele Ballester | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| David Puig | 50% YES | 51% NO |
LIV Golf's player roster faces potential attrition over the next eighteen months, with the market currently pricing a 50% likelihood that at least one named player will depart the Saudi-backed circuit by mid-2026. This could occur through formal withdrawal, announcement of a move to another tour, or structural dissolution of LIV Golf itself. The resolution criteria explicitly treat announced intentions to join alternative tours identically to actual departures, meaning even pre-emptive declarations of future moves would trigger a "Yes" outcome.
Historical precedent suggests moderate churn is plausible. The PGA Tour has experienced player departures to LIV since 2022, but the reverse flow remains limited—most defectors have remained committed to the Saudi venture despite initial scepticism. However, the ongoing merger negotiations between the PGA Tour and Saudi Public Investment Fund create material uncertainty about LIV's long-term viability as an independent entity. A completed merger or acquisition would likely collapse LIV as a standalone tour, automatically resolving this market affirmatively.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through June 2026: formal announcements regarding PGA-Saudi negotiations, any player statements about tour preferences, and LIV's scheduling and financial commitments. Recent reporting indicates merger discussions remain fluid, with no definitive timeline established. Individual player contract terms and performance incentives may also influence retention, particularly if LIV faces funding constraints or operational changes. The current 50% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine structural uncertainty rather than consensus expectation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Players to leave LIV Golf by June 30, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$311 in lifetime turnover and $59 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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