Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming NWSL game, scheduled for Tuesday, May 12, 2026 between Boston Legacy FC and Orlando Pride.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Boston Legacy FC | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Draw (Boston Legacy FC vs. Orlando Pride) | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Orlando Pride | 44% YES | 56% NO |
Boston Legacy FC will face Orlando Pride in an NWSL regular-season match on Tuesday, 12 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing a Boston victory at 28 per cent implied probability, reflecting the market's assessment that Orlando enters as the favoured side in this fixture.
Orlando Pride have established themselves as a consistent playoff contender in the NWSL, whilst Boston Legacy FC, as a newer franchise, remains in a developmental phase relative to the league's established clubs. Historical matchups between expansion or lower-tier sides and established programmes typically see the latter priced at 60–70 per cent win probability; the current 28 per cent for Boston aligns with this pattern. The spread between the two clubs' recent form, squad depth, and playoff experience informs how traders are weighting this outcome on the order book today.
Key variables for traders to monitor include team news on injuries or roster changes in the weeks preceding the match, as well as each side's position in the playoff race as of early May 2026. Weather conditions on match day—typical for May in Florida—may favour either side's playing style. Orlando's home-field advantage, should the match be played in their territory, typically adds 3–5 percentage points to win probability in women's football. Any late-season form swings or managerial adjustments announced closer to the settlement window will likely shift the order book materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.nwslsoccer.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Boston Legacy FC vs. Orlando Pride" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11 in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nwslsoccer.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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