Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Norway Eliteserien game, scheduled for Sunday, May 3, 2026 between IK Start and Tromsø IL.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| IK Start | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (IK Start vs. Tromsø IL) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Tromsø IL | 0% YES | 100% NO |
IK Start and Tromsø IL will meet in the Norwegian Eliteserien on Sunday, 3 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero volume at any price level, with the crowd-implied probability sitting at 0% YES—a reflection of minimal trading activity rather than genuine market conviction. This wide-open liquidity profile means early traders face substantial spreads and the probability will shift sharply once meaningful orders accumulate.
Historically, matches between lower-table Eliteserien sides carry high volatility in prediction markets because casual traders often avoid illiquid fixtures. IK Start has competed in the top division intermittently, whilst Tromsø IL has stabilised in recent seasons. Direct head-to-head records between these clubs show competitive, often close contests; neither side dominates the fixture. The 0% reading is therefore a liquidity artefact rather than a forecast that IK Start cannot win—similar dynamics appear across Scandinavian football markets where regional derbies or mid-table clashes attract sparse early interest.
Traders should monitor team news through late April, particularly injury updates and any late fixture rescheduling announcements from the Norwegian Football Federation. Recent Eliteserien schedules have occasionally shifted due to European competition calendars affecting other clubs. Confirmation of squad availability and starting lineups typically emerges 48–72 hours before kickoff, which will be the catalyst for meaningful price discovery on this market. Until then, the order book will likely remain thin and the implied probability unstable.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.eliteserien.no/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "IK Start vs. Tromsø IL" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.eliteserien.no/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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