Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLS game between Inter Miami CF and Portland Timbers, scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Inter Miami CF | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Portland Timbers | 48% YES | 53% NO |
Inter Miami CF will host Portland Timbers on 17 May 2026 at 6:00 PM ET in an MLS regular-season fixture. The market settles on the halftime result—whether Miami leads, the sides are level, or Portland leads after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 49% implied probability for a Miami halftime advantage, suggesting near-parity in trader expectations despite Miami's home venue.
Halftime markets in MLS typically correlate with full-time outcomes at roughly 65–70% accuracy, though early goals shift momentum considerably. Miami's recent form and home record will anchor baseline expectations; Portland's travel fatigue and defensive setup are secondary factors. Historical data from comparable MLS matchups shows that halftime leads hold through full-time in approximately two-thirds of cases, meaning the 49% probability for Miami reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a strong home-field edge being priced in.
Key variables for traders include team news released before kickoff—any late injuries to key attacking or defensive personnel will move the order book. Miami's pressing intensity in early minutes and Portland's counter-attacking readiness will determine whether either side establishes early control. Weather conditions at the venue and referee assignment may also influence early-game tempo. The settlement window closes at 22:00 UTC on 17 May, roughly five hours after kickoff, allowing the market to reflect actual halftime scorelines with minimal ambiguity.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $136 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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