Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres, scheduled for May 9 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| NRFI | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
The St. Louis Cardinals face the San Diego Padres on 9 May at 7:15 PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 45% implied probability for a Cardinals victory, pricing them as slight underdogs in this National League contest. Settlement occurs on 16 May, allowing five days post-game for official statistics to be confirmed.
The Cardinals and Padres have maintained relatively balanced competitive records in recent seasons, with neither franchise establishing pronounced dominance in head-to-head matchups. Historical win rates between these clubs typically cluster around 50–52% for either side depending on the season, suggesting that baseline expectations should centre near even odds. The current 45% probability for St. Louis reflects either specific roster considerations, recent form disparities, or home-field advantage for San Diego that traders are pricing into the order book today.
Key variables affecting this matchup include starting pitcher assignments—typically confirmed 24 to 48 hours before game time—and any late roster changes due to injury. Recent injury reports from both organisations should be monitored through official MLB channels and team announcements. Weather conditions at the venue may also influence game dynamics, particularly wind direction affecting fly-ball outcomes. Traders should note that the settlement window extends five days post-game to accommodate official final statistics confirmation, meaning resolution is not immediate.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$176K in lifetime turnover and $735K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $176K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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