Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins, scheduled for May 22 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
Sports outcome markets settle within hours of game-end via the UMA optimistic oracle, with the YES/NO line refreshing in real time on every meaningful in-game event. Current odds favour the NO side at 49%, making this a coinflip market with 7 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $878K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| NRFI | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| Spread -2.5 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 33% YES | 67% NO |
The New York Mets face the Miami Marlins in Miami tonight, with the market currently pricing the Mets at about 49% to win. On Polymarket, that implied probability is formed from the live order book rather than a fixed line, so the price reflects where buyers and sellers are clearing at this moment, not just a pre-match projection. A near-50% read suggests the game is being treated as close to a coin flip, with small moves likely if line-ups, pitching confirmation or late team news shift sentiment before first pitch.
For context, these division match-ups often hinge on starting pitching and recent run prevention rather than overall records alone. The Mets have been volatile in recent weeks, and MLB.com reported after a previous loss to Miami that they “took an early lead only to go silent in the middle innings”, which is the sort of game state traders will want to keep in mind when evaluating in-play momentum. ESPN’s market page listed the Mets as modest favourites at -126, so the crowd price is broadly aligned with an edge to New York, but not by much.
Catalysts to watch are the confirmed starting pitchers, batting order changes, and any late scratches or bullpen availability after Thursday’s workload. Because the settlement window extends beyond the scheduled date, postponement remains a live operational risk: if weather or field issues force a delay, the market stays open until completion; if the game is cancelled outright or ends tied, it resolves 50-50. If the game is played as scheduled, the final result from MLB’s official statistics will determine settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 29 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.mlb.com/), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Sports markets on PolyGram historically have the fastest payout cycle — over 94% clear within four hours of game-end, with the remainder gated by overtime, weather, or referee review. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins", sports markets tend to see the tightest 1-2¢ spreads in the final hour before tip-off, widening rapidly the moment of any in-game news.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($878K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
Other active prediction markets in the same category on PolyGram, ranked by trading volume:
The mechanics for trading "New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$146K in lifetime turnover and $878K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $146K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 29 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins", the considerations above apply directly — Sports outcome contracts are sensitive to single-event variance — a coin-flip game, a referee call, or an injured player can move the line 10-30¢ in seconds. Position sizing should reflect that variance rather than the expected value alone.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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