Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for May 10 at 1:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| NRFI | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 71% YES | 29% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 6.5 | 61% YES | 39% NO |
The Minnesota Twins face the Cleveland Guardians in an MLB matchup scheduled for 10 May at 1:40 PM ET, with settlement occurring by 17 May. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 36% probability for a Twins victory, reflecting modest confidence in Cleveland. This pricing sits within the typical range for regular-season divisional matchups where neither team holds overwhelming advantage on a given day.
Historical context suggests mid-May divisional games between these AL Central rivals carry meaningful variance. The Twins and Guardians have competed closely in recent seasons, with outcomes heavily dependent on starting pitcher matchups and recent form. A 36% implied probability for Minnesota indicates the market is pricing Cleveland as a modest favourite, likely reflecting their standing in the division or recent head-to-head performance at the time of market creation. Comparable games between these franchises typically settle within a 45–55% range for either side, making the current skew towards Cleveland noteworthy.
Traders should monitor roster announcements and injury reports through settlement, particularly regarding starting pitchers and key position players. Weather conditions at game time may influence play, whilst any schedule changes or postponements would extend the market window. Recent team performance metrics—batting averages, ERA trends, and bullpen availability—will shape late-order book movement as game time approaches. The 1:40 PM ET start time places this in afternoon baseball territory, where day-game performance patterns occasionally diverge from evening contests.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$158K in lifetime turnover and $284K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $158K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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