Sports

Trade: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for May 11 at 6:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Angels" if the Los Angeles Angels win the game. This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$949K
Total Volume
$709K
24h Volume
$709K
Open Interest
$534K
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians 0% YES100% NO
NRFI 0% YES100% NO
Spread -1.5 98% YES2% NO
O/U 7.5 92% YES8% NO
O/U 8.5 79% YES22% NO
O/U 6.5 100% YES0% NO
O/U 5.5 100% YES0% NO
Spread -2.5 52% YES48% NO

Market context

The Los Angeles Angels face the Cleveland Guardians on 11 May at 6:10 PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The current order book on Polymarket prices the Angels at approximately 1% implied probability, reflecting substantial market conviction towards a Guardians victory. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, where the spread between bid and ask prices crystallises consensus expectations among active traders.

The Guardians enter 2026 as a stronger franchise by recent historical standards. Cleveland has consistently competed in the AL Central, whilst the Angels have struggled with roster construction and injury management over recent seasons. When comparable matchups pit rebuilding or mid-tier teams against established contenders, markets typically price the weaker team at 15–25% baseline probability before accounting for specific game factors. The 1% reading here suggests traders are pricing in additional disadvantages beyond typical strength differentials—potentially factoring in Angels roster depletion, starting pitcher matchups, or recent performance trends.

Traders should monitor pitching announcements and injury reports through to game time, as these remain primary drivers of single-game MLB pricing. Recent Angels roster moves and Cleveland's current win-loss record will inform whether the extreme probability reflects genuine competitive disparity or potential overpricing. The settlement window extends to 18 May, allowing for postponement resolution should weather or scheduling issues arise.

Wikipedia Context

  • Los Angeles
    Los Angeles

    Los Angeles (LA) is the most populous city in the U.S. state of California, and the commercial, financial, and cultural center of Southern California. With an estimated 3.88 million residents within the city limits as of 2024, it is the second-most populous city in the United States, behind New York City, and the largest city in the Western United States. Th

  • Los Angeles Times
    Los Angeles Times

    The Los Angeles Times is an American daily newspaper that began publishing in Los Angeles, California, in 1881. Based in the Greater Los Angeles city of El Segundo since 2018, it is the sixth-largest newspaper in the U.S. and the largest in the Western United States with a print circulation of 63,500. As of 2022, it had 500,000 online subscribers, the fifth-

  • Los Angeles Lakers
    Los Angeles Lakers

    The Los Angeles Lakers are an American professional basketball team based in Los Angeles. The Lakers compete in the National Basketball Association (NBA) as a member of the Pacific Division of the Western Conference. The Lakers play their home games at Crypto.com Arena, an arena they share with the Los Angeles Sparks of the Women's National Basketball Associ

  • Los Angeles Angels
    Los Angeles Angels

    The Los Angeles Angels are an American professional baseball team based in Anaheim, California, within the Greater Los Angeles area. The Angels compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) West Division. Since 1966, the team has played its home games at Angel Stadium.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$709K in lifetime turnover and $949K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.

Last 24 hours alone saw $709K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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