Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for May 22 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
Sports outcome markets settle within hours of game-end via the UMA optimistic oracle, with the YES/NO line refreshing in real time on every meaningful in-game event. Current odds favour the NO side at 45%, making this a coinflip market with 7 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $663K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| NRFI | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Spread -3.5 | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% YES | 66% NO |
Detroit faces Baltimore in MLB at 7:15pm ET, with the market currently pricing Baltimore at 44% yes. On Polymarket, that figure reflects the live order book rather than a fixed bookmaker line: bids and asks are being matched against each other, so the implied probability can move quickly on lineup news, pitching updates, or broader market flow. With settlement tied to the official final result, the contract is a direct read on who traders expect to win once the game is played.
A 44% price for Baltimore sits in a range that is consistent with a competitive road or home spot rather than a clear mismatch, and it should be read against recent form as well as pre-game context. OddsIndex’s current preview has Baltimore around -127 on the moneyline, implying roughly 55.9% for the Orioles, which is a useful comparison point for how the prediction market is differing from a conventional sportsbook-style view. That gap suggests the market is still digesting whatever edge is being assigned to Detroit, whether from starting pitching, recent results, or a perceived mismatch in the run environment.
For catalysts, traders should watch confirmed starting pitchers, batting orders, and any late injury or rest news before first pitch, because those inputs usually reprice the book most sharply. The market also remains sensitive to schedule changes: if the game is postponed, it stays open until completion; if it is cancelled with no make-up, or ends in a tie, it resolves 50-50. A recent OddsIndex preview and the live Polymarket quote together indicate that today’s probability is being formed from a mix of pre-game matchup analysis and active order-book liquidity, rather than one settled consensus.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 29 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.mlb.com/), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Sports markets on PolyGram historically have the fastest payout cycle — over 94% clear within four hours of game-end, with the remainder gated by overtime, weather, or referee review. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles", sports markets tend to see the tightest 1-2¢ spreads in the final hour before tip-off, widening rapidly the moment of any in-game news.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($663K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
Other active prediction markets in the same category on PolyGram, ranked by trading volume:
The mechanics for trading "Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$181K in lifetime turnover and $663K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $181K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 29 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles", the considerations above apply directly — Sports outcome contracts are sensitive to single-event variance — a coin-flip game, a referee call, or an injured player can move the line 10-30¢ in seconds. Position sizing should reflect that variance rather than the expected value alone.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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