Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Paul Skenes | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| Chris Sale | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Hunter Greene | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Blake Snell | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Logan Webb | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Zack Wheeler | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The 2026 National League Cy Young Award will be presented to the pitcher judged most valuable in the senior circuit that season. The award voting occurs after the regular season concludes, with results typically announced in November. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 37% probability that a specific player (likely a pre-identified favourite) will claim the honour, reflecting substantial uncertainty about which pitcher will compile the strongest statistical case across a full season.
Historical voting patterns show the award typically goes to pitchers with dominant ERA, strikeout totals, and win-loss records, though the criteria remain subjective. Since 2015, no single pitcher has been prohibitively favoured before a season began; Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom each won multiple times during their peak years, but injuries and roster changes shifted probabilities considerably year-to-year. The current 37% probability suggests the market is pricing in meaningful competition amongst several contenders rather than a consensus frontrunner.
Traders should monitor spring training performance, injury reports during the 2026 season, and mid-season statistical trends as key catalysts. Roster moves during the off-season and trade deadline will influence which pitchers accumulate innings and wins. The voting itself depends on voters' weighting of traditional statistics versus advanced metrics; recent years have seen increased emphasis on ERA+ and FIP alongside traditional counting stats. Settlement occurs after official MLB announcement, with alphabetical tie-breaking applied if necessary.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MLB: 2026 NL Cy Young Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$41K in lifetime turnover and $61K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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