Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Copa Libertadores game between SE Palmeiras and Club Cerro Porteño, scheduled for May 20, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| SE Palmeiras | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Draw | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Club Cerro Porteño | 49% YES | 52% NO |
SE Palmeiras will host Club Cerro Porteño in a Copa Libertadores fixture on 20 May 2026 at 8:30 PM ET. The market concerns the halftime result—whether Palmeiras wins, the match remains level, or Cerro Porteño leads at the interval. Currently, the Polymarket order book reflects a 49% implied probability for a Palmeiras halftime victory, with the remaining probability distributed between draws and away wins.
Palmeiras' recent Copa Libertadores form provides context for interpreting this probability. The Brazilian club typically dominates possession and creates early chances in home matches, though Cerro Porteño, a Paraguayan side with defensive discipline, has historically made halftime results competitive. In comparable group-stage encounters between Brazilian and Paraguayan clubs at this competition level, halftime home wins occur in roughly 45–55% of fixtures depending on tactical setup and squad depth. The current 49% probability sits within this historical range, suggesting the market has priced in Palmeiras' home advantage without overweighting their favourite status.
Traders should monitor team news releases through May, particularly injury confirmations for Palmeiras' attacking personnel and any late tactical shifts from either manager. Cerro Porteño's travel logistics and acclimatisation to Brazilian conditions may influence early-match intensity. Weather conditions in São Paulo on match day—humidity and temperature—could affect pace and pressing intensity in the opening 45 minutes. Any official squad announcements within 48 hours of kickoff typically shift halftime markets as traders adjust for confirmed absences or unexpected inclusions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://conmebollibertadores.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $69 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://conmebollibertadores.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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