Trade: LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús - More Markets
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Copa Libertadores game, scheduled for May 20 at 8:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $7K
- Total Volume
- $740
- 24h Volume
- $110
- Open Interest
- $740
Market outcomes
| LDU de Quito (-2.5) | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| CA Lanús (-2.5) | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| Both Teams to Score | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| LDU de Quito (-1.5) | 34% YES | 66% NO |
Market context
LDU de Quito will face CA Lanús in the Copa Libertadores on 20 May at 8:30 PM ET, with settlement determined by whether additional betting markets are offered for this fixture. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 18% implied probability of further markets materialising, suggesting traders believe the likelihood of supplementary betting options is modest relative to baseline expectations for major continental fixtures.
Copa Libertadores matches typically generate multiple derivative markets—correct score, total goals, player performance props—particularly when both clubs carry significant regional followings. LDU, Ecuador's most successful club in continental competition, and Lanús, a consistent Argentine first-division side, represent moderate-tier draw power compared to matches involving Boca Juniors or Flamengo. Historical precedent shows that markets expand most readily for fixtures involving top-four Argentine or Brazilian clubs; matches between smaller regional powers often receive limited secondary market development despite competitive merit.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's own market-creation activity and any announcements from the platform regarding Copa Libertadores coverage expansion. Fixture timing—an 8:30 PM ET kick-off—falls within North American trading hours, potentially influencing whether platform operators prioritise additional markets. Recent platform updates have shown variable appetite for South American football props; tracking whether similar LDU or Lanús fixtures from earlier tournament rounds received extended market suites will provide calibration for assessing current probability formation.
Wikipedia Context
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Lou GehrigHenry Louis Gehrig was an American professional baseball first baseman who played 17 seasons in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the New York Yankees. Gehrig was renowned for his prowess as a hitter and for his durability, which earned him the nickname "the Iron Horse", and he is regarded as one of the greatest baseball players of all time. Gehrig was an All-
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Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://conmebollibertadores.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$740 in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $110 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://conmebollibertadores.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús - More Markets"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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