Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the La Liga game, scheduled for May 10 at 10:15 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Athletic Club (-1.5) | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Valencia CF (-1.5) | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Athletic Club (-2.5) | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Valencia CF (-2.5) | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
Athletic Club and Valencia CF will meet in La Liga on 10 May at 10:15 AM ET, with settlement occurring at 14:15 UTC that same day. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 31% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in a baseline expectation against this condition materialising based on recent activity and depth across the book.
La Liga's final-day fixture scheduling often produces volatile pricing in derivative markets, particularly when clubs have differing stakes in the outcome. Historical precedent shows that late-season Athletic Club versus Valencia matchups have typically generated modest trading volumes relative to marquee fixtures, with probability ranges clustering between 25–40% for secondary market conditions. The clubs' respective league positions and European qualification scenarios as of early May will materially influence how the order book reprices in the days leading to settlement.
Traders should monitor official La Liga fixture confirmations, injury bulletins from both clubs, and any last-minute scheduling changes that could affect market liquidity. Recent reporting on both sides' squad depth and tactical priorities will inform whether the current 31% pricing holds or shifts materially. The settlement window's precision—ending at 14:15 UTC—means traders must account for potential delays in official market data release, a common friction point in football derivatives trading.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$133K in lifetime turnover and $627K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $133K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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