Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between Athletic Club and Valencia CF.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Athletic Club | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Valencia CF | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Athletic Club will host Valencia CF in a La Liga fixture on Sunday, 10 May 2026, with the settlement window closing at 14:15 UTC that day. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 44% implied probability for an Athletic Club victory, pricing the Basque side as slight underdogs despite home advantage. This probability has formed across the market's liquidity pools as traders weigh the teams' relative strength heading into the final stretch of the 2025–26 season.
Historically, Athletic Club's home record in La Liga has been a meaningful edge; the club typically converts Estadio San Mamés into a difficult venue for visiting sides. Valencia, conversely, has experienced inconsistent form in recent seasons, oscillating between mid-table finishes and European qualification contention. The 44% price suggests the market is pricing Athletic as favourites but not heavily so—a reflection of Valencia's capacity to compete on the road and the inherent variance in single-match outcomes.
Key variables for traders to monitor include team injury reports and squad rotation decisions in the weeks preceding the fixture, particularly given the timing near season's end when fixture congestion and European commitments may affect squad availability. Recent La Liga standings and form lines—wins, draws, and goal differentials in the five matches prior—will sharpen probability estimates. Any managerial changes, suspensions, or official announcements from either club's medical staff could shift the order book materially in the days before kick-off.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$359K in lifetime turnover and $1.1M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $352K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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