Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Goal scorers for the La Liga game between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid CF, scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Goalscorer: Robert Lewandowski | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| Goalscorer: Ferran Torres | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Goalscorer: Fermín Lopez | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Goalscorer: Vinicius Junior | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Goalscorer: Raphinha | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Goalscorer: Roony Bardghji | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Goalscorer: Marcus Rashford | 100% YES | 0% NO |
FC Barcelona and Real Madrid will meet on 10 May 2026 in a La Liga fixture scheduled for 3:00 PM ET. The player props market is pricing goal-scorer outcomes, with current order-book activity on Polymarket reflecting a 35% implied probability for the YES position. This probability is being formed by real-time trading across the book, balancing backer and layer positions as new information enters the market.
Historically, El Clásico matches have produced volatile goal-scorer markets due to the unpredictability of which attacking players will be on the pitch and in form. Barcelona's attacking depth and Real Madrid's counter-attacking efficiency have both shifted considerably across seasons, making historical strike-rate comparisons less reliable than they appear. The 35% current price sits between the extremes of these two clubs' typical attacking output, suggesting traders are pricing in moderate offensive threat from the named player(s) in question.
Key catalysts ahead of settlement include squad announcements, injury reports, and tactical confirmations from both clubs in the weeks before the match. Transfer activity during the 2025–26 season will reshape both squads' attacking options. Weather conditions on match day and referee assignments may also influence play style. Traders should monitor official team news from Barcelona and Real Madrid's media channels and La Liga's fixture communications as the settlement window approaches, since late-breaking team-sheet changes can significantly reprrice goal-scorer probabilities in the final hours before kickoff.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF - Player Props" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$85K in lifetime turnover and $85K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $83K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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