Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 between Deportivo Alavés and FC Barcelona.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Deportivo Alavés | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Draw (Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona) | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| FC Barcelona | 46% YES | 55% NO |
Deportivo Alavés will host FC Barcelona in a La Liga fixture on Wednesday, 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Barcelona victory at 30 per cent implied probability, reflecting the away side's historical dominance in this matchup and their typical league standing relative to Alavés. This probability is being formed across the market's liquidity pools as traders price in both teams' form, injury status, and seasonal context closer to the fixture date.
Barcelona have won the majority of their encounters with Alavés over the past decade, though the Basque club have occasionally secured draws or narrow defeats at home. The 30 per cent YES price suggests the market is weighting Barcelona as clear favourites, consistent with their usual position in La Liga's upper tier. Historical win rates and goal differential in this fixture provide a baseline for assessing whether current pricing reflects Barcelona's expected performance or if late-season variables—such as title race implications or European competition fatigue—have shifted the calculus.
Traders should monitor team news in the weeks preceding the match, particularly injury updates for Barcelona's key players and any fixture congestion from European commitments. La Liga's final weeks often see shifts in motivation depending on whether either side remains in contention for European qualification or domestic honours. Alavés' form trajectory and any managerial changes at either club will also influence the probability as settlement approaches. The settlement window closes immediately after the final whistle on 13 May.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$112K in lifetime turnover and $1.6M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $81K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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