Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the J1 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for May 13 at 6:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5) | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5) | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 63% YES | 38% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
FC Machida Zelvia will face Tōkyō Verdy in a J1 League fixture on 13 May 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 6:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 22% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of additional betting markets being offered for this particular match. The settlement window closes at 10:00 AM ET on match day, allowing roughly four hours post-kick-off for final resolution.
Historical precedent in J1 League coverage shows that fixture liquidity and market depth vary considerably based on team prominence, scheduling, and international interest. Machida Zelvia and Tōkyō Verdy occupy mid-table positions in the J1 hierarchy, which typically correlates with reduced secondary market offerings compared to matches involving Tokyo's larger clubs. The 22% probability reflects this structural reality: smaller clubs generate fewer derivative markets, and sportsbooks calibrate their offerings accordingly.
Traders should monitor official J1 League and Polymarket announcements in the week preceding 13 May, as market expansion decisions are often signalled through league communications or betting platform updates. Weather conditions affecting the early morning ET slot and any last-minute team news could influence whether bookmakers judge the fixture sufficiently noteworthy for expanded markets. The settlement hinges entirely on whether additional markets materialise before the window closes, making this a binary outcome dependent on commercial decisions rather than on-pitch performance.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FC Machida Zelvia vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$293 in lifetime turnover and $54K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $59 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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