Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the J1 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for May 10 at 2:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Gamba Ōsaka and Sanfrecce Hiroshima will meet in the J1 League on 10 May 2026, with settlement occurring shortly after the final whistle. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this secondary market at 6% implied probability, reflecting relatively thin liquidity typical of niche J1 fixtures booked months in advance. The low probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific outcome or simply reflecting the sparse trading activity that characterises markets for Japanese domestic football outside peak European hours.
Historical J1 matchups between these clubs show competitive balance. Gamba Ōsaka finished 2024 in mid-table, whilst Sanfrecce Hiroshima has alternated between playoff contention and mid-pack finishes over recent seasons. Neither club has established dominance in head-to-head records, making the 6% reading somewhat arbitrary rather than grounded in form differentials. Comparable secondary markets for J1 fixtures typically see probability shifts once team news emerges in late April—injuries, rotation decisions, and continental competition fatigue often repriced the odds substantially in the final fortnight before kickoff.
Traders should monitor both clubs' performance through April and any announcements regarding squad availability or managerial changes. The AFC Champions League schedule may affect squad rotation, particularly if either side advances deep into the competition. Weather conditions in Osaka or Hiroshima on match day can also influence play style. Liquidity on the order book may increase closer to the fixture date as European and Asian trading hours overlap, potentially narrowing the current wide spreads.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Gamba Ōsaka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$37K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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