Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Coppa Italia game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 between SS Lazio and FC Internazionale Milano.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| SS Lazio | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| Draw (SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano) | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| FC Internazionale Milano | 59% YES | 42% NO |
Lazio will face Inter Milan in a Coppa Italia fixture on Wednesday, 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Lazio victory at 18 per cent, reflecting the substantial gap in recent competitive form between the two clubs. Inter have dominated Italian football over the past three seasons, whilst Lazio have struggled to maintain consistency at the highest level, finishing outside the top four in recent Serie A campaigns.
Historically, knockout cup matches in Italy show greater variance than league fixtures, yet Inter's superior depth and experience in high-pressure European and domestic competitions suggest structural advantages. Lazio's last Coppa Italia success came in 2019; Inter have won the competition twice since then. The 18 per cent probability embedded in current order flow reflects a significant underdog position, consistent with pre-match betting markets where Lazio typically trade between 16–20 per cent in similar matchups against top-four opposition.
Traders should monitor team news regarding injuries to key personnel, particularly Inter's attacking options and Lazio's defensive stability, in the fortnight before kick-off. Fixture congestion in late April and early May—with both clubs potentially competing in European competitions—may affect squad rotation decisions. The Coppa Italia semi-final structure means this fixture carries knockout consequences; any announcement regarding fixture postponement or rescheduling would materially alter probability assessments. Settlement occurs immediately after the final whistle on 13 May at 19:00 UTC.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.legaseriea.it/en/coppa-italia. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$23K in lifetime turnover and $115K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $668 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/en/coppa-italia. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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