Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Canada | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Qatar | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| Switzerland | 55% YES | 45% NO |
The 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage runs from 11–27 June, with Group B's composition and winner to be determined through standard round-robin play. The current order book on Polymarket prices Group B's winner at 24% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty around which of the four group teams will finish first on points, goal differential, and head-to-head records according to FIFA's official tiebreak procedures.
Historical precedent suggests group-stage outcomes depend heavily on seeding and draw composition. The 2022 World Cup saw several upsets—Japan topped Group E ahead of Spain and Germany—whilst traditional powerhouses like France and Belgium advanced as expected. Group B's eventual strength will depend on which teams FIFA's draw assigns to it, scheduled for late 2025. Teams ranked in the top 16 typically advance, though lower-ranked sides occasionally progress when grouped with weaker opposition or when established sides underperform.
Traders should monitor FIFA's official draw announcement and subsequent qualification campaigns through late 2025, as these will clarify Group B's actual composition and competitive balance. Recent reporting from major sports outlets will track qualifying results and team form heading into the tournament. Injuries to key players, managerial changes, and fixture congestion in domestic leagues during the months before June 2026 will influence team readiness. The settlement window closes 27 June 2026, giving traders approximately nine months from now to reassess probabilities as new information emerges about participating nations' strength and preparation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "FIFA World Cup Group B Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$58K in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $852 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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