Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Slovenia and Cyprus, scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Slovenia vs. Cyprus match originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Slovenia and Cyprus will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 4 June 2026, with the match kicking off at 12:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The current 50% implied probability for YES reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the final scoreline will match one of the explicitly listed outcomes or fall into the "Any Other Score" category.
Historical precedent suggests that exact-score markets in friendly fixtures typically see substantial probability mass distributed across multiple outcomes rather than concentrated on a single result. Slovenia and Cyprus occupy different competitive tiers within European football; Slovenia qualified for the 2010 World Cup and has maintained UEFA ranking positions around 60–80 globally, whilst Cyprus typically ranks lower, around 120–140. This disparity creates asymmetry in expected goal distributions, though friendlies introduce volatility that narrows predictability compared to competitive matches. The 50% split between listed scores and "Any Other Score" on Polymarket's order book reflects this inherent uncertainty in low-stakes international fixtures.
Key variables for traders include squad availability and injury status closer to June 2026, as both nations may have domestic league commitments concluding shortly before the fixture. Fixture congestion in late May could affect team selection and intensity. The friendly's timing—post-domestic season—means preparation levels may vary significantly. Monitor official announcements from the Slovenian and Cypriot football associations regarding squad confirmation, typically released 7–10 days before international windows. Any late postponement would extend the settlement window, affecting liquidity on Polymarket's order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Slovenia vs. Cyprus - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $19 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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