Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 5 at 1:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Moldova (-1.5) | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Bulgaria (-1.5) | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Moldova (-2.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Bulgaria (-2.5) | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
Moldova and Bulgaria are scheduled to face each other in a FIFA International Friendly on 5 June 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices the YES outcome at 42%, reflecting modest backing for additional markets to be created around this fixture. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on match day, giving traders a narrow window to assess whether supplementary betting markets materialise before the final whistle.
Friendly matches between lower-ranked European nations historically attract limited commercial interest, which constrains the number of derivative markets sportsbooks typically offer. Moldova (currently ranked around 175th) and Bulgaria (around 62nd) sit well outside the tier of fixtures that routinely spawn multiple betting products. The 42% probability suggests the crowd perceives a material but minority chance that sufficient liquidity or operator appetite will justify additional markets—perhaps prop bets on specific scorelines, player performances, or half-time outcomes—rather than the baseline match result.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmations and any late squad announcements from either federation, as withdrawals or postponements would eliminate the underlying event entirely. Sportsbook coverage decisions typically crystallise in the week preceding friendlies, with operators publishing their full market slate by match day. Recent UEFA and national federation calendars show June 2026 friendlies are still subject to scheduling adjustments. The narrow settlement window means confirmation of additional markets must occur before kick-off; post-match market creation would not resolve YES.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Moldova vs. Bulgaria - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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