Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for May 28 at 2:45 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Qatar (-1.5) | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Republic of Ireland (-2.5) | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Republic of Ireland (-1.5) | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| Qatar (-2.5) | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
Ireland and Qatar are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 28 May 2026 at 2:45 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 40% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders expect additional betting markets to be created around this fixture. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity as participants assess the likelihood that supplementary markets beyond the standard match result, over/under, and handicap offerings will materialise.
Historical precedent indicates that friendly matches between nations of differing competitive profiles—Ireland ranked 37th in FIFA standings versus Qatar at 50th as of late 2024—typically attract modest market depth unless one team carries significant tournament preparation status or the fixture carries geopolitical weight. The 40% probability suggests traders view the pairing as moderately likely to warrant extended market coverage, though not a certainty. Comparable friendlies involving smaller football nations have generated additional markets when tied to confederation competitions or when one side faces imminent major tournament qualification.
Catalysts affecting market expansion include confirmation of squad selections and injury updates, typically released 7–10 days before kick-off, and any late scheduling changes. The fixture's proximity to the 2026 World Cup qualification window means both federations may use the match for tactical preparation, potentially increasing media attention and thus market demand. Traders should monitor official FIFA and national federation announcements regarding team news, as unexpected withdrawals or high-profile absences could diminish commercial interest in supplementary markets.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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