Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Premier League game, scheduled for May 10 at 9:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Newcastle United FC (-1.5) | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Newcastle United FC (-2.5) | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 4% YES | 97% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United are scheduled to meet on 10 May 2026 in a Premier League fixture. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 8% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders view this as a low-probability event relative to alternative resolutions. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on match day, allowing roughly four hours post-kickoff for final price discovery before resolution.
Historical precedent for similar niche Premier League markets shows that low single-digit probabilities typically cluster around specific, constrained outcomes—such as exact scorelines, particular player performances, or conditional events tied to match circumstances. The 8% probability here sits below the baseline for most individual match events, indicating either high specificity in the market's definition or substantial consensus among participants that the condition is unlikely to materialise given typical match dynamics.
Traders should monitor team news and injury updates in the weeks preceding the fixture, as squad availability often reshapes market expectations for secondary outcomes. Fixture congestion late in the season may also influence tactical approaches and squad rotation decisions. The timing of the match—early in the morning by UK standards—could affect player availability or performance profiles, though this factor typically carries modest weight in Premier League pricing. Any official clarification on market settlement criteria should be reviewed carefully, as definition precision directly impacts the probability's reliability as a guide to underlying event likelihood.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premierleague.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$129K in lifetime turnover and $232K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $126K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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