Sports

Trade: T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Botswana - Toss Match Double

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Kenya and Botswana scheduled for 2026-05-29 in T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Kenya will be considered correct if Kenya is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Botswana will be considered correct if Botswana is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$0
Total Volume
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24h Volume
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Open Interest
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Market outcomes

KEN2 100% YES0% NO
Draw 0% YES100% NO
BWA3 0% YES100% NO

Market context

Kenya and Botswana will contest a T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier match on 29 May 2026, with this market requiring both the coin toss outcome and final match result to align with a single nation. The settlement hinges on official records from ESPNcricinfo, meaning a correct prediction demands accuracy on two independent events occurring sequentially. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for YES, suggesting traders are pricing near-certainty that one of these outcomes will materialise—a reflection of the binary nature of the market structure rather than confidence in either team's likelihood.

Historical context from comparable T20 qualifier fixtures shows that toss-and-match doubles typically trade at lower probabilities than single-outcome markets, given the compounding effect of two conditions needing alignment. In regional African qualifiers, Kenya has established itself as the stronger cricketing nation with more consistent international exposure, whilst Botswana remains an emerging programme. This asymmetry typically influences pricing, though the current 100% reading suggests the market may be reflecting technical factors or limited liquidity depth rather than fundamental assessment.

Traders should monitor team announcements regarding squad composition and venue conditions closer to the match date, as ground preparation and weather forecasts can materially shift toss-winning probabilities. The qualifier's scheduling within the broader World Cup pathway may also affect team preparation intensity. Settlement closes on 5 June 2026, providing a window for result confirmation after the scheduled 29 May fixture.

Wikipedia Context

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Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Botswana - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Botswana - Toss Match Double"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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