Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Northamptonshire and Gloucestershire scheduled for 2026-05-29 in T20 Blast. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Northamptonshire will be considered correct if Northamptonshire is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Gloucestershire will be considered correct if Gloucestershire is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| NOR | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| GLO | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Northamptonshire and Gloucestershire will contest a T20 Blast fixture on 29 May 2026, with this market requiring both the coin toss outcome and final match result to align with a single team. The settlement hinges on official records from ESPN Cricinfo, meaning either Northamptonshire must win both toss and match, or Gloucestershire must achieve the same combination. The current Polymarket order book reflects 100% implied probability for YES, suggesting traders are pricing near-certainty that one of these two outcomes will occur—a mathematically sound position given that the market's binary structure covers all possible resolutions (one team wins both, or the other does).
Historical T20 Blast data shows toss outcomes carry modest predictive value for match results, with winning the toss correlating to roughly 51–53% match win rates across the competition. This suggests the two events operate with meaningful independence, yet the current probability reflects confidence in the market's structural completeness rather than directional conviction about either team's likelihood of the double. Traders should monitor team news closer to the fixture date, particularly injury updates and squad rotations, as these directly influence match-winning chances without affecting toss mechanics.
Catalysts include official team announcements in late May regarding player availability and any weather forecasts that might influence toss strategy. Ground conditions at the scheduled venue and recent form data from both sides will become relevant in the final week before play. The settlement window closes at 13:30 on 5 June, allowing time for ESPN Cricinfo's official publication of results.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Gloucestershire - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$193 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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