Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Durham and Yorkshire scheduled for 2026-05-29 in T20 Blast. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Durham will be considered correct if Durham is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Yorkshire will be considered correct if Yorkshire is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| YOR | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| DUR | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Durham and Yorkshire meet in the T20 Blast on 29 May 2026, with this market requiring a single team to win both the coin toss and the match itself. The settlement hinges on official records from ESPNcricinfo, making it a compound probability event where success demands two independent outcomes align. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in one outcome or minimal liquidity depth at the current price, suggesting traders should examine the book's actual depth before committing capital.
Historically, toss-and-match double outcomes in T20 cricket show modest correlation between coin toss success and match victory. Whilst toss winners gain the advantage of choosing batting or bowling conditions, T20's compressed format and high variance mean toss outcomes explain only a fraction of match results. In comparable domestic T20 leagues, toss doubles typically trade at probabilities reflecting the product of individual event likelihoods—roughly 25% per team if toss and match win probabilities hover around 50% each. The current 100% reading suggests either the market has priced in team-specific factors or the order book lacks meaningful counterparty interest at realistic levels.
Traders should monitor team news, injury updates, and ground conditions as the fixture approaches. Recent form in the 2026 Blast season, squad composition changes, and weather forecasts for the Durham venue will influence both toss strategy and match outcome. The settlement window closes 29 May at 13:30 UTC, allowing only match-day developments to shift probabilities materially from current levels.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "T20 Blast: Durham vs Yorkshire - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$117 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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