Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Chinese Super League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between Qingdao Hainiu FC and Dalian Yingbo FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Qingdao Hainiu FC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Dalian Yingbo FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Qingdao Hainiu FC will host Dalian Yingbo FC in a Chinese Super League fixture on 10 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 71% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in a relatively high likelihood of a specific result—typically a home win or over/under threshold depending on market definition. This probability has formed through recent trading activity and represents the marginal price at which buyers and sellers are currently meeting.
Chinese Super League form and head-to-head records between these two Shandong-based clubs provide historical anchors for assessing the 71% level. Qingdao Hainiu has historically been the stronger outfit in recent seasons, though Dalian Yingbo has shown competitive improvement. The home advantage at Qingdao's stadium typically carries weight in Chinese football, where travel fatigue and crowd support measurably affect outcomes. Recent seasons show home teams in the Super League win approximately 45–50% of matches, making the current probability plausible if Qingdao is favoured.
Traders should monitor team news in the weeks before settlement, particularly injury announcements and squad rotation decisions as the season progresses toward May. Fixture congestion in late April and early May often influences squad availability. Weather conditions in Qingdao during May—typically warm and occasionally rainy—may affect playing style. Any official league postponements or rescheduling would reset market assumptions entirely. Settlement closes 10 May at 12:00 UTC, allowing only match-day trading after final lineups are confirmed.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.csl-china.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$75K in lifetime turnover and $365K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $74K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.csl-china.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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