Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Chinese Super League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between Beijing Guoan FC and Shanghai Haigang FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Beijing Guoan FC | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Draw (Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC) | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| Shanghai Haigang FC | 6% YES | 94% NO |
Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Haigang will meet in a Chinese Super League fixture on Sunday, 10 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (interpreted as a Beijing Guoan victory) at 31%, implying Shanghai Haigang or a draw carries 69% of the probability mass. This pricing reflects the aggregate of traders' assessments across the available liquidity, with the settlement window closing shortly after the final whistle.
Historical matchups between these clubs show Beijing Guoan as the stronger performer in head-to-head records over the past five seasons, though Shanghai Haigang has improved squad depth and tactical consistency under recent management. Beijing Guoan's home record at the Workers' Stadium has traditionally been formidable, but their away form has been inconsistent in 2025–26. Shanghai Haigang's defensive solidity this season—conceding fewer goals than their historical average—suggests they are capable of securing points against established rivals. The 31% probability for a Guoan win sits below their historical win percentage in direct encounters, signalling the market's assessment that current form and fixture context favour the visiting side or a stalemate.
Traders should monitor team news releases for injury confirmations in the week preceding the match, particularly regarding key attacking or defensive personnel. Fixture congestion in the CSL schedule and any mid-week cup commitments will affect squad rotation decisions. Recent league standings and goal-difference calculations may influence tactical approach, especially if either side is chasing or defending a specific finishing position as the season progresses.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.csl-china.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$93K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $93K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.csl-china.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: