Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by the Bundesliga following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Union Berlin | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC Augsburg | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Hamburger SV | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC Heidenheim | 95% YES | 5% NO |
| St. Pauli | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| FC Koln | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Three clubs will be relegated from Germany's top division at the conclusion of the 2025–26 Bundesliga season, with the bottom three finishers dropping to the second tier. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's assessment that this particular club will avoid that fate, though the probability formation depends entirely on which club is being priced. With the season underway and roughly half the campaign remaining before the May 2026 settlement window, traders are pricing in the club's current league position, recent form, fixture difficulty, and managerial stability.
Historically, Bundesliga relegation markets have been shaped by mid-table volatility and late-season collapses. Clubs finishing 16th and 18th drop automatically, whilst the 17th-placed team enters a two-legged playoff against the third-tier champion. Recent seasons have seen surprise relegations from established sides—Schalke 04 and Hamburg's descents illustrate how quickly financial mismanagement and tactical failure compound. The current 0% pricing suggests either a club with substantial points safety or one trading at odds that reflect minimal relegation risk relative to its position.
Traders should monitor upcoming fixture congestion, injury reports to key players, and managerial changes, particularly around the January transfer window and February onwards when the season's trajectory becomes clearer. Bundesliga standings updates every matchday provide real-time data for recalibrating positions. The playoff mechanism for 17th place adds complexity; a club's proximity to that threshold versus automatic relegation will influence market repricing substantially as the season progresses toward May 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bundesliga - Which Clubs Get Relegated?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$64K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $383 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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