Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Union Berlin.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Draw (1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 49% YES | 52% NO |
Mainz will host Union Berlin in a Bundesliga fixture on Sunday, 10 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Mainz victory or draw at 57%, implying Union Berlin's win probability at 43%. This probability reflects both sides' recent form, head-to-head record, and home-field advantage weighting typical of German league markets at this stage of the season.
Historically, Mainz's home record against Union Berlin shows mixed results. Union has strengthened considerably since their promotion to the top flight and have become a consistent mid-table competitor, whilst Mainz typically hover in the lower half of the Bundesliga standings. The 57% YES probability suggests the market is pricing in modest Mainz advantage from playing at home, though not overwhelming favouritism. Comparable fixtures between established mid-table sides in May tend to settle near 50–55% for the home team when form is neutral.
Traders should monitor team news through early May, particularly injury updates and any late-season fixture congestion affecting either squad's preparation. Bundesliga standings as of late April will clarify whether either side has European qualification or relegation implications still in play, which could shift motivation. Recent form in the weeks preceding the match—particularly how each team performs in their penultimate fixtures—typically moves the probability by 3–5 percentage points. Weather conditions at the Opel Arena on match day may also influence play style expectations closer to settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.0M in lifetime turnover and $383K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $964K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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