Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between 1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim 1846.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1. FC Köln | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| Draw (1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846) | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 56% YES | 44% NO |
On Sunday, 10 May 2026, 1. FC Köln will host 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 in a Bundesliga fixture. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Köln victory at 44 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest confidence in the home side despite their status as the established top-flight club. Settlement occurs at 15:30 UTC on the match day, capturing the full ninety minutes plus any injury time.
Köln and Heidenheim occupy different historical tiers. Köln, a traditional Bundesliga fixture, has spent most seasons in Germany's top division; Heidenheim, by contrast, secured promotion to the Bundesliga only in 2023 and has since established themselves as a competitive mid-table side. Head-to-head records and recent form between these clubs matter less than their respective trajectories in 2025–26. If Köln is fighting relegation or mid-table mediocrity whilst Heidenheim maintains momentum, the 44 per cent probability may undervalue the visitors. Conversely, home advantage and Köln's infrastructure typically favour the Rhineland club in direct matchups.
Traders should monitor team news through late April and early May: injury updates to key players, managerial changes, and final-day league position stakes will shift the order book. Köln's fixture congestion in the weeks prior and Heidenheim's form trajectory into May are material catalysts. Bundesliga official announcements regarding squad availability typically emerge forty-eight to seventy-two hours before kick-off, offering a final pricing adjustment window before settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.1M in lifetime turnover and $623K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.1M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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