Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Brazil Série A game, scheduled for May 10 at 7:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5) | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| CA Paranaense (-1.5) | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5) | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| CA Paranaense (-2.5) | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 76% YES | 24% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
CR Vasco da Gama will face CA Paranaense in a Brazil Série A fixture on 10 May 2026 at 19:30 ET. The market currently prices the outcome of additional betting markets for this match at 27% probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting modest conviction among traders that supplementary markets will be available for settlement. The 27% implied probability suggests the crowd expects either limited market creation or a baseline expectation that primary markets will suffice for this fixture.
Historical precedent for Série A matches shows variable market depth depending on fixture prominence and trader interest. Matches involving established clubs like Vasco da Gama typically attract multiple derivative markets—including player performance, corner counts, and card totals—particularly when the clubs rank in the upper half of the table. Paranaense's competitive standing and recent form will influence whether traders perceive sufficient edge to justify additional market creation. The current probability reflects uncertainty about whether this particular fixture will generate the trading volume necessary to justify supplementary market infrastructure.
Traders should monitor team news and injury updates through early May, as significant absences could affect perceived match quality and thus secondary market demand. Polymarket's historical settlement patterns for Série A fixtures, and any platform announcements regarding expanded market offerings for Brazilian football, will shape order book positioning as the settlement window approaches. Fixture scheduling changes or broadcast prominence may also influence whether traders expect sufficient liquidity to justify additional markets.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Paranaense - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$129K in lifetime turnover and $182K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $129K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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