Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between SE Palmeiras and Cruzeiro EC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC) | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Cruzeiro EC | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| SE Palmeiras | 54% YES | 46% NO |
SE Palmeiras will face Cruzeiro EC in a Série A fixture on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Palmeiras victory at 26%, implying roughly 74% probability assigned to either a draw or Cruzeiro win combined. This pricing reflects market participants' assessment of the matchup based on available team form, historical records, and squad composition as of the settlement window close on 17 May.
Palmeiras have been among Brazil's strongest domestic performers over recent seasons, winning multiple Série A titles and establishing themselves as consistent contenders. Cruzeiro, historically one of Brazil's elite clubs, has experienced periods of instability but remains capable of competitive performances. The current 26% YES probability suggests the market views Palmeiras as underdogs or that significant uncertainty exists around team availability, tactical setup, or recent form deterioration heading into May 2026. Historical head-to-head records and home-ground advantage typically influence such pricing substantially.
Traders should monitor squad news through mid-May, particularly injury updates and any late roster changes that could affect either side's competitive capacity. Fixture congestion in the Brazilian calendar—with potential Copa do Brasil or continental competition demands—may impact team rotation decisions. Recent league standings and goal-differential records will provide concrete data on current form. Any official team news released by either club in the week preceding the match could shift the order book materially, as would confirmation of venue or scheduling changes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $45K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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