Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf and SV 07 Elversberg.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| SV 07 Elversberg | 0% YES | 100% NO |
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf will face SV 07 Elversberg in the 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, 10 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for this match occurring as scheduled, indicating traders are pricing in near-certainty that the fixture will take place within the settlement window closing at 11:30 UTC that morning. This probability formation typically reflects confidence in league scheduling stability and absence of reported fixture cancellations or postponements.
The 2. Bundesliga maintains a strong operational record for fixture completion, with cancellations rare outside extreme weather or security incidents. Historical precedent suggests that matches scheduled in May—late in the season—face minimal postponement risk compared to winter fixtures. Both clubs' league status and financial stability as of early 2026 would inform whether either side faces administrative disruption that might affect fixture viability.
Traders should monitor official DFL (Deutsche Fußball Liga) communications for any scheduling changes, weather warnings for the Düsseldorf region in the days preceding 10 May, or unexpected club announcements regarding player availability or operational issues. Fixture integrity depends on neither club entering administration or facing league sanctions that would trigger match cancellations. The settlement window's early morning closure (11:30 UTC) means the market resolves shortly after typical German kick-off times, leaving minimal window for late-breaking developments to alter the outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$88K in lifetime turnover and $280K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $87K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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