Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Gilles Arnaud Bailly in the Roland Garros, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for May 19, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolai Budkov Kjaer' if Nicolai Budkov Kjaer advances against Gilles Arnaud Bailly. This market will resolve to 'Gilles Arnaud Bailly' if Gilles Arnaud Bailly advances against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Sports outcome markets settle within hours of game-end via the UMA optimistic oracle, with the YES/NO line refreshing in real time on every meaningful in-game event. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 6 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Set 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Match O/U 21.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Match O/U 22.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Match O/U 23.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Gilles Arnaud Bailly are due to meet in Roland Garros qualifying, with the market treating Budkov Kjaer as the clear baseline favourite. The present 100% YES crowd signal leaves little meaningful disagreement, but Polymarket’s order book still matters: the implied price is formed by the mix of standing bids, fresh liquidity and any late hedging, so even a near-certain market can move if traders react to withdrawal risk, a walkover, or confirmed line-up news. The relevant comparison is a straightforward qualifying match on clay between players without an established ATP head-to-head, which usually pushes traders back towards ranking, recent form on the surface, and how each player has handled best-of-three pressure in lower-tier events.
The immediate catalysts are practical rather than tactical: whether the match starts on schedule, any change in court assignment or timing, and whether either player is reported as injured, ill, or withdrawn from the qualifying draw. Tennis Tonic’s preview on 19 May 2026 noted this is their first career meeting and quoted Budkov Kjaer as the early favourite at 1.23 against 3.92, while FanDuel also listed Budkov Kjaer shorter in its match markets. Those prices support the market’s current bias, but traders should still watch the official Roland Garros order of play and ATP draw updates, since a delayed or cancelled fixture would override pre-match conviction and force the market towards the settlement fallback.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 26 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Sports markets on PolyGram historically have the fastest payout cycle — over 94% clear within four hours of game-end, with the remainder gated by overtime, weather, or referee review. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly", sports markets tend to see the tightest 1-2¢ spreads in the final hour before tip-off, widening rapidly the moment of any in-game news.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($0 of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
Other active prediction markets in the same category on PolyGram, ranked by trading volume:
The mechanics for trading "Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$137K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $25K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly", the considerations above apply directly — Sports outcome contracts are sensitive to single-event variance — a coin-flip game, a referee call, or an injured player can move the line 10-30¢ in seconds. Position sizing should reflect that variance rather than the expected value alone.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: