Resolution criteria on PolyGram: If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? | 6% YES | 94% NO |
Doge-1 is a 12U CubeSat satellite intended to conduct a lunar flyby mission, with SpaceX's Starship as the planned launch vehicle. The mission has been in development since 2021 as a collaboration between SpaceX and the Geometric Energy Corporation. For the market to resolve affirmatively, the satellite must successfully launch from its pad by 31 December 2026, 23:59 ET, regardless of subsequent mission performance or anomalies post-launch.
Comparable lunar missions provide context for the current 8% implied probability on Polymarket's order book. SpaceX's Starship programme has experienced multiple launch delays since its first integrated flight test in April 2023, with subsequent attempts occurring months apart. Lunar payload missions typically face extended development timelines; NASA's Artemis I took over a decade from initial planning to launch. The Doge-1 mission's dependency on Starship's operational cadence and regulatory clearances for lunar trajectories mirrors constraints that have historically compressed probability assessments for near-term space missions.
Key catalysts include SpaceX's Starship launch schedule announcements and Federal Aviation Administration licensing decisions for lunar-trajectory flights. As of late 2024, Starship remains in test-flight phase with no confirmed manifest for dedicated lunar payloads. Traders should monitor SpaceX's quarterly updates regarding Starship's operational timeline and any formal payload integration announcements. The 25-month window to December 2026 requires both Starship to achieve regular launch cadence and Doge-1 to complete final integration—a compressed timeline relative to historical precedent for novel lunar missions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$799K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for space contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $717 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 6%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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