Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Pluto's reclassification from planet to dwarf planet in 2006 remains one of astronomy's most contentious decisions. The International Astronomical Union's definition requires celestial bodies to have cleared their orbital neighbourhood of other debris—a criterion Pluto fails. However, NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has publicly advocated for reversing this classification, and with Donald Trump's return to the presidency, there is renewed speculation about whether executive action could override the IAU's scientific consensus. The current 4% implied probability on Polymarket reflects the substantial institutional inertia surrounding planetary classification, where scientific bodies typically resist political pressure on nomenclature.
Historical precedent suggests reclassification faces steep odds. The IAU's 2006 decision followed rigorous debate among planetary scientists and has held across two decades despite periodic public campaigns to restore Pluto's status. Any reversal would require either the IAU itself to revisit its definition—an unlikely prospect given the scientific rationale remains sound—or Trump to issue a formal declaration that explicitly designates Pluto as a planet. The latter would represent an unprecedented assertion of executive authority over astronomical taxonomy and would lack binding force on international scientific bodies.
Traders should monitor statements from Trump's administration regarding space policy, any IAU meetings scheduled before June 2026, and whether Isaacman's advocacy gains traction within NASA's institutional hierarchy. The resolution criteria require an explicit declaration of planetary status rather than mere discussion of reclassification, setting a high bar for settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$21K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for space contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $481 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 5%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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