Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jang Dong-hyeok ceases to be Leader of the People Power Party (PPP) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Jang Dong-hyeok's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? | 64% YES | 37% NO |
Jang Dong-hyeok assumed leadership of South Korea's People Power Party (PPP) in September 2024, following the party's poor performance in legislative elections. The 74% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial trader conviction that he will be removed or resign before 30 June 2026—a timeframe covering less than two years of his tenure. This probability is being formed by active trading on the platform's order book, where buyers of "Yes" contracts are pricing in meaningful risk of leadership transition within that window.
South Korean political parties have experienced frequent leadership changes, particularly when facing electoral setbacks or internal factional disputes. Park Geun-hye's tenure as Democratic Party leader lasted roughly two years before her 2012 presidential campaign transition; more recently, Lee Jun-seok's PPP leadership ended after approximately eighteen months amid party infighting in 2023. These precedents suggest that sub-two-year leadership cycles are not uncommon in Korean opposition politics, especially when parties seek to reposition themselves ahead of major elections or respond to internal pressure.
Traders should monitor several catalysts: the 2026 local elections scheduled for June, which could trigger leadership reassessment if results disappoint; factional disputes within the PPP between conservative and reformist wings; and any major political developments involving President Yoon Suk Yeol's administration, to which the PPP remains closely aligned. Recent reporting from Korean news outlets has documented ongoing tensions between Jang and senior party figures over strategic direction, though no imminent departure has been announced as of late 2024.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $710 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for south korea contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $493 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 64%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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