Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 40 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 50 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 60 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 70 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 90 | 95% YES | 5% NO |
| 100 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| 110 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on Solana's SOL/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 12 May 2026, as recorded on Binance's 1-minute candle chart. The settlement window extends to 16:00 ET that day, providing a defined resolution point tied to a specific exchange and trading pair. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either exceptionally tight pricing around the threshold or minimal liquidity depth at current levels, suggesting traders are pricing in near-certainty for the specified outcome.
Historical precedent shows Solana's volatility typically ranges between 5–15% daily during normal market conditions, though intraday noon snapshots can diverge substantially from daily closes depending on Asia-Pacific and European session activity. The May 2026 timeframe sits beyond most institutional forecasting horizons, making comparable historical analogues difficult to establish with precision. Current probability readings at extremes (100% or 0%) often indicate thin order books rather than genuine consensus, particularly for markets settling 18+ months forward.
Traders monitoring this position should track Solana ecosystem developments, including validator network health, TVL trends across major protocols, and macroeconomic shifts affecting risk appetite for alternative layer-1 blockchains. Regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrency custody or trading venues could influence Binance's operational status or SOL/USDT pair availability. Near-term catalysts include quarterly network upgrades and institutional adoption milestones, though their impact on a specific noon-hour price point in May 2026 remains speculative. The extreme probability suggests limited active participation; tighter spreads may emerge as the settlement date approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Solana above ___ on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$31K in lifetime turnover and $185K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for solana contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $23K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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