Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 30 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 40 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 50 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 60 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 70 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 90 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 100 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on Solana's noon ET price on 10 May 2026, using the one-minute candle close on Binance's SOL/USDT pair. The 100% implied probability reflects the current order book depth on Polymarket, where traders are pricing near-certainty that SOL will close above the specified threshold at that precise timestamp. With over four years until settlement, the probability formation is driven primarily by long-term positioning rather than near-term volatility expectations.
Historical precedent suggests that multi-year cryptocurrency price floors rarely sustain at 100% certainty. Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced multiple cycles of boom and contraction, with prices revisiting previous support levels despite long bull runs. Solana specifically has demonstrated volatility ranging from sub-$10 to over $250 per token within single market cycles. The current probability likely reflects either an extremely low price threshold or a structural assumption about Solana's minimum viable price by 2026, rather than confidence in a specific price target.
Traders monitoring this market should track Solana's network adoption metrics, including transaction volume and validator participation, alongside broader cryptocurrency market conditions. Regulatory developments affecting proof-of-stake networks and stablecoin infrastructure remain material catalysts. The May 2026 settlement date falls outside any announced Solana roadmap milestones, meaning resolution will depend on ambient market conditions rather than protocol-specific events. Basis between Binance spot and other major exchanges should also be monitored, as the market's specificity to Binance's one-minute candle introduces execution risk around noon ET on that date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Solana above ___ on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$102K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for solana contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $18K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: