Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket to predict which club will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League (soccer).
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 8 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $1.4M of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Real Madrid | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Arsenal | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Nice | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Man City | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Dortmund | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Slavia Pragu | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Team H | — | |
| Bayern Munich | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market concerns which club will lift the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League trophy. On Polymarket, the price is set by the live order book, so the implied probability reflects where buyers and sellers are meeting today rather than a fixed model estimate. A 0% YES reading at this stage usually points to no active liquidity at the current strike, not to an actual impossibility of the event. For context, late-stage Champions League winner markets can move sharply on the back of one tie, one injury report, or a redraw, because there are only a small number of remaining fixtures and each result changes the path to the final.
Recent comparable pricing across prediction and sportsbook markets has tended to concentrate on the few clubs still alive in the knockout rounds, with favourites’ chances often rising after a favourable draw or an away result in the first leg. That is consistent with Champions League history: the eventual winner is usually one of a short list of elite sides, but pre-final prices can still be volatile because the format is single-elimination over two legs until the final. The key lesson is that today’s implied probability is a snapshot of both team strength and bracket position, not a pure read on who is best over a neutral 90 minutes.
Traders should watch the remaining fixture schedule, any injury or suspension updates, and the final confirmation of who has qualified and who has been eliminated, as these directly change the set of possible outcomes. Reuters reported in May that the 2026 final-stage picture was still being shaped by the knockout rounds, with squad availability and match sequencing central to market repricing. On Polymarket, new information is absorbed continuously through the order book, so settlement-date positioning can shift quickly if a club gets a manageable route or loses a key player before the deciding ties.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 31 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "UEFA Champions League Winner", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($1.4M of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "UEFA Champions League Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$255.9M in lifetime turnover and $1.4M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $620K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 10 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "UEFA Champions League Winner", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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