Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Monday, May 11, 2026 between Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and Girona FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Draw (Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC) | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Girona FC | 33% YES | 68% NO |
Rayo Vallecano will host Girona FC in a La Liga fixture on Monday, 11 May 2026, with settlement determined by the final match result. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 40% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting roughly even odds between a Rayo victory and either a draw or Girona win combined.
Historically, Rayo Vallecano's home record in La Liga has been volatile, with the club oscillating between competitive seasons and relegation battles depending on squad composition and managerial stability. Girona, by contrast, has emerged as a more consistent mid-table performer since their promotion to the top flight, though they lack the home-ground advantage in this fixture. The current 40% probability sits below Rayo's typical home-match baseline, indicating the market is pricing in either recent form deterioration for the hosts or relative strength in Girona's away performance record.
Traders should monitor team news and injury reports in the final weeks before settlement, particularly regarding key attacking or defensive personnel for both sides. La Liga fixture congestion in early May—with European competition potentially affecting squad rotation—may influence squad selection. Additionally, any managerial changes at either club or shifts in league standings affecting motivation (title races, European qualification spots, or relegation concerns) could alter match dynamics. Historical head-to-head records and recent league form in April will provide concrete data points as the settlement window approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$72K in lifetime turnover and $2.3M of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $69K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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