Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Bosnia-Herzegovina, scheduled for June 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Switzerland | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Draw | 48% YES | 52% NO |
Switzerland will face Bosnia-Herzegovina in a 2026 FIFA World Cup fixture on 18 June, with the halftime result market settling on the scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 48% probability for a Switzerland halftime lead, implying roughly even odds between a Swiss advantage and either a draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina lead at the interval.
Historical World Cup halftime markets show that home-nation advantage typically inflates opening-half scoring, though the venue for this match remains unconfirmed. Switzerland's recent qualifying campaign demonstrated defensive solidity; they conceded only five goals across ten matches en route to qualification. Bosnia-Herzegovina qualified through the playoff route and have historically struggled against top-ranked opposition in opening periods, though their qualifying record showed marginal improvement. Comparable halftime markets in prior tournaments suggest that teams ranked significantly higher (Switzerland sits around 15th in FIFA rankings versus Bosnia-Herzegovina at approximately 60th) convert early pressure into leads roughly 55–65% of the time, making the current 48% probability slightly conservative relative to historical baselines.
Team news and final squad announcements will arrive within days of the match date. Weather conditions in the host nation and any late injury developments to key Swiss attacking players—particularly those from elite club sides—could shift the probability materially. Polymarket's order book will tighten considerably as kickoff approaches, with the spread narrowing once lineups are confirmed.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $61 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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