Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the person appointed as the next permanent head coach of SSC Napoli. If no permanent manager is appointed by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SSC Napoli; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 3%, making this a high-confidence market with 96 days to resolution, giving the order book ample time to absorb new information, backed by $7K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Maurizio Sarri | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Dries Mertens | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Thomas Frank | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Oliver Glasner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Manager A | — | |
| Manager H | — | |
| Lorenzo Insigne | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Marco Silva | 0% YES | 100% NO |
SSC Napoli's managerial position will determine the next permanent head coach appointment at the Italian club. The current 3% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a market assessment that the incumbent manager—currently Antonio Conte, appointed in June 2023—is likely to remain in post through the August 2026 settlement window. Resolution occurs upon announcement of any permanent successor, regardless of when that appointment takes effect, with interim or caretaker arrangements excluded from triggering resolution.
Historical precedent at Napoli suggests managerial stability remains uncommon but achievable under specific conditions. Maurizio Sarri completed two full seasons (2014–2016) before departing, whilst Carlo Ancelotti lasted eighteen months. Conte's appointment followed a Scudetto-winning 2022–23 campaign under Luciano Spalletti, establishing elevated expectations. The 3% probability implies traders assess a low likelihood of managerial change within the next two years, pricing in either sustained competitive performance or contractual continuity that discourages mid-cycle replacement.
Catalysts for market movement centre on Napoli's Serie A performance trajectory and European competition results. The 2024–25 season performance will signal whether Conte's project meets institutional expectations; sustained underperformance or Champions League elimination could accelerate successor speculation. Contract extension announcements or public statements from club ownership regarding managerial confidence would provide direct resolution catalysts. Transfer window activity and squad composition decisions in summer 2025 will also inform market participants' assessments of whether structural changes indicate confidence in current management or preparation for transition.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 1 September 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Serie A: Next Napoli Manager", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($7K of resting liquidity), a $100 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Serie A: Next Napoli Manager" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$297K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for serie a contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $292K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Serie A: Next Napoli Manager", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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