Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| 3 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 5 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| 2 | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| 4 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 6 or lower | 2% YES | 98% NO |
The market concerns whether 2026 will rank among the hottest years in the instrumental temperature record maintained by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index extends back to 1880, providing 146 years of comparable data. Resolution hinges on 2026's final ranking once annual figures are published, typically in January following the calendar year. The 42% implied probability reflects current market pricing across Polymarket's order book, suggesting traders assess meaningful but uncertain odds that 2026 finishes in the top tier of warmest years.
Recent years have established an elevated baseline for global temperatures. 2023 and 2024 ranked as the warmest and second-warmest years respectively in the instrumental record, with 2016 previously holding the top position. This clustering of record-breaking years in the past two years reflects sustained warming trends, though annual rankings remain sensitive to natural variability including El Niño and La Niña cycles. The 42% probability reflects uncertainty about whether 2026 will sustain the exceptional warmth of 2023–2024 or experience relative cooling, which would push it lower in the historical ranking.
Traders should monitor sea surface temperature anomalies and ENSO forecasts through 2026, as these drive significant year-to-year variation. The transition from the 2023–2024 El Niño towards potential La Niña conditions in 2025–2026 represents a key catalyst; La Niña typically correlates with cooler global temperatures. Monthly temperature releases from NOAA and NASA throughout 2026 will provide early signals, though the final ranking depends on the complete annual dataset published in early 2027.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.8M in lifetime turnover and $78K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $24K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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