Trade: "Toy Story 5" Rotten Tomatoes score?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Toy Story 5 (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on June 22, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by June 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $746
- Total Volume
- $137
- 24h Volume
- $32
- Open Interest
- $105
Market outcomes
| 80+ | 92% YES | 9% NO |
| 90+ | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| 75+ | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| 85+ | 90% YES | 10% NO |
Market context
Pixar's Toy Story 5 is scheduled for theatrical release in 2026, with Rotten Tomatoes critical reception to be assessed at the specified threshold on 22 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability, suggesting market participants expect the film to meet or exceed the score threshold. This probability is being formed by traders pricing in both the historical strength of the franchise and broader uncertainty around critical reception for a fifth instalment in a series that has already concluded narratively.
The Toy Story franchise has maintained consistent critical performance across its theatrical releases. Toy Story 3 (2010) achieved 98% on the Tomatometer, whilst Toy Story 4 (2019) scored 97%. Both films benefited from strong direction, emotional resonance with audiences, and technical execution that critics recognised. However, extending a franchise beyond its intended endpoint carries inherent risk; critical fatigue and narrative redundancy have historically affected later sequels. The 92% probability reflects confidence in Pixar's execution whilst acknowledging that a fifth film faces higher scepticism than predecessors.
Traders should monitor production updates, director announcements, and early festival screenings throughout 2025 and early 2026. Pixar's track record with Toy Story specifically—and broader animation quality—will inform market repricing. Any significant creative departures, casting changes, or production delays could shift expectations. The resolution window closes 22 June 2026, with a four-day grace period for data availability, meaning critical consensus must stabilise by late June for definitive resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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Toy StoryToy Story is a 1995 American animated adventure comedy film directed by John Lasseter, and written by Joss Whedon, Andrew Stanton, Joel Cohen, and Alec Sokolow. The first entirely computer-animated feature film, as well as the first feature film produced by Pixar Animation Studios, it stars the voices of Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, Annie Potts, John Ratzenberger,
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Toy Story (franchise)Toy Story is an American media franchise created by Pixar Animation Studios and owned by The Walt Disney Company. It centers on toys that, unknown to humans, are secretly living. It began in 1995 with the release of the animated feature film of the same name, which focuses on a diverse group of toys featuring a classic cowboy doll named Sheriff Woody and a m
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Toy Story 3Toy Story 3 is a 2010 American animated adventure comedy-drama film produced by Pixar Animation Studios for Walt Disney Pictures. Directed by Lee Unkrich and written by Michael Arndt, it is the third installment in the Toy Story film series and the sequel to Toy Story 2 (1999). The film features the voices of Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, Joan Cusack, Don Rickles, W
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Toy Story 2Toy Story 2 is a 1999 American animated adventure comedy film produced by Pixar Animation Studios for Walt Disney Pictures. It is the sequel to Toy Story (1995) and the second installment in Pixar's Toy Story franchise. The film was directed by John Lasseter from a screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Rita Hsiao, Doug Chamberlin, and Chris Webb. Tom Hanks, Tim Alle
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading ""Toy Story 5" Rotten Tomatoes score?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$137 in lifetime turnover and $746 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for rotten tomatoes contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $32 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on ""Toy Story 5" Rotten Tomatoes score?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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